MEMO from the Democratic Governors
Association
September 21, 2010
General Election
Landscape: Opportunities in Governors Races
FR: Nathan Daschle, executive director, Democratic Governors
Association
TO: Interested parties
RE: General Election Landscape: Opportunities in Governors Races
With exactly six weeks to go and the general election landscape now
set in the governors races, one major development over the past six
months has markedly improved conditions in an otherwise volatile and
challenging landscape for Democratic gubernatorial candidates: the GOP
Civil War. The rabid insistence of the party's fringe base to nominate
ideological purists and extremists over pragmatic centrists has
provided openings to Democrats that will blunt the impact of what
seemed to be a Republican wave year on par with 1994, when Republicans
netted 10 governorships.
Based on both public and internal polling, general election voters
in 2010 want competence and common-sense problem-solving, not extremism
or ideologically driven agenda in their governors. Instead, the GOP
nominated half a dozen Christine O'Donnells in the governors races.
Republicans weakened their opportunities for victory by nominating a
class of candidates whose backgrounds, lack of experience and radical
visions would make Sharron Angle blush.
Republicans are advancing two types of candidates in key
battlegrounds this cycle: Tea Party standard-bearers and those scarred
by the Tea Party. This dynamic has already helped better position
Democrats in the three biggest prizes of the 2010 governors races:
California, Florida and Texas. The following is a breakdown of key
states where the GOP Civil War has changed race dynamics in our favor:
- California: Meg Whitman's naked attempt to buy the governorship
has
Californians continuing to be skeptical of her candidacy, despite
record spending of nearly
$120 million. In her primary, Whitman alienated herself from
mainstream voters by moving far to the right on issues like immigration
to beat back a late surge from Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner.
Attorney General Jerry Brown is within single digits while Whitman's
unfavs are twice her favs, according to most public polling.
- Colorado. Tea Party/Tinfoil Hat nominee Dan Maes has been
abandoned
by national Republicans in this 2012 battleground state. His candidacy falls so
short of meeting the standard
for holding public office that Tom Tancredo, himself a discredited
extremist, is running as a third party candidate in the state. Denver
Mayor John Hickenlooper has a healthy
double-digit lead, according to public polling.
- Florida: Rick Scott, the Madoff of Medicare, led a company that
committed fraud against taxpayers and seniors on such a massive scale
that it was forced to pay $1.7
billion - the largest fine ever.
With the backing of Tea Party groups, Scott beat out career politician
Bill McCollum. He's the type of person who is willing to take
the fifth 75 times in a deposition about his leadership. Scott now
faces even more damaging
revelations about his fraudulent business practices - including
recent news that he was aware
of warnings inside his company
that Medicare rules were being flaunted. Florida Chief Financial
Officer Alex Sink, who is running on a platform of common-sense
leadership and restoring the economy, is maintaining a single-digit
lead in most public
polling.
- Georgia: Nathan Deal, one of the most corrupt members of
Congress,
is the Christine O'Donnell of the South. Like O'Donnell, his personal
financial problems are creating
an uproar in Georgia, as he failed to report his millions in debt
and is reportedly near
bankruptcy or foreclosure. Former Gov. Roy Barnes is in a dead heat
with Deal, with the momentum on Barnes' side.
- Illinois: Bill Brady, another Tea Party candidate, emerged from
the
hard-fought GOP primary. Since then, he has proposed such radical ideas
as lowering the minimum
wage in a recession and he has sponsored legislation for the mass
gassing of dogs and cats. While this race remains tight, Brady's extremist
views and incompetence give Gov. Pat Quinn an opening in the final
weeks.
- Maine: Tea Partier Paul LePage melted down and swore at reporters
in recent press conferences when they asked him why he didn't
pay property taxes in Maine. LePage not only ran as a Tea Partier
but also has the backing of a state party that adopted
the Tea Party platform at its convention. There is no available
public polling since LePage's dramatic outburst.
- Minnesota: Tom Emmer surged to his nomination only with the
last-minute blessing of Sarah Palin and her Tea Party backers. In the
general election, he has proposed one radical idea after the other,
including his assertion that restaurant employees make too much money
and their minimum wage should
be reduced. He also defends a Christian rock group
that suggests executing homosexuals should be applauded. His extremist
views sparked
a nationwide boycott of Target Corp. after the company donated to
efforts to elect Emmer. Recent polling shows Mark Dayton in the lead.
- New York: Tea Party candidate Carl Paladino defeated longtime
politico Rick Lazio. Paladino's laundry
list of scandals, whether it's his bestiality emails
or his statements that people in public housing should take hygiene
lessons, put him in a class to himself. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo
leads by healthy
double digits in public polling.
Democrats continue to have strong pickup opportunities in additional
states that Republicans now control, including Connecticut, Hawaii
Rhode Island and Vermont.
In addition to pickup opportunities for our party, Democratic
incumbents, despite the historic trends and the worst recession in
generations, are faring well in making their case to voters. We are
winning or neck-and-neck in most of our incumbent races. We will
continue to aggressively support incumbent governors who are
well-positioned to win tight races across the map in Ohio, New
Hampshire, Massachusetts, Maryland, Iowa, Illinois and Arkansas.
What to look for in the
weeks ahead
With a historic and political environment that would seem to favor
the GOP, leading Republicans like Newt Gingrich have all but guaranteed
that the party will pick up even more than the 10 governorships they
clinched in 1994. What Republicans are ignoring, however, are factors
that are unique to 2010.
First, damage from the GOP Civil War has been substantial. The
unorthodox candidates and their radical positions will, we believe,
provide further opportunities for Democratic candidates.
Second, this is not the GOP of 1994. The party of 2010 is marked by
division, cynicism and extremism. There is no groundswell of support
for the GOP, as there was in 1994, because this GOP isn't offering new
ideas or a constructive, positive vision of our country.
Finally, thanks to strong Democratic candidates and incumbents who
are running on an agenda of common-sense solutions and restoring our
economy, our party is in a competitive position in our targeted states.
Reinforcing these individual campaigns is a record-breaking $50 million
DGA campaign - the largest in our history - that will exploit every
opportunity to defend incumbents and win key races, particularly
California, Florida and Texas.