Obama |
Romney ||
Visits
Although
Republicans last carried the Badger state in 1984 with President
Reagan's re-election, the
2000 and 2004 campaigns were extremely close. Republicans
saw encouraging signs in their success in the June 5
recall
election. In the early part of the general election campaign
there was little activity from
the presidential candidates, and they avoided getting involved in the
recall. After that highly divisive campaign, the most expensive
in
the state's history, costing $81 million according to the Wisconsin
Democracy Campaign,
the presidential campaigns appeared to want to give Wisconsinites a bit
of a
respite.
The State in Play
The lull disappeared with Romney's selection of Rep. Paul
Ryan of Janesville (in Rock
County in Southern Wisconsin on the Minnesota border) as his
running mate. Romney's announcement on August 11 put the
state firmly in
play (
+).
Democratic principals finally started visiting beginning
with Michelle Obama on August 23; in the final week President Obama
made three visits to the state. Ryan did a
fair amount of campaigning in the state, and he also made it back home
to Janesville on most weekends. The state also received its share
of advertising; according to the Smart Media Group the
Obama and Romney campaigns and
their allies spent a total of $45 million on the ad war in Wisconsin,
the eighth most of any state.
Green presidential nominee Jill Stein's campaign was headquartered in
Madison. On Wisconsin ballots, Stein's campaign manager and
longtime Madison progressive acitivist Ben Manski appeared as her
running mate; his name had been used as a placeholder when the campaign
circulated its petitions. The Green ticket fared very poorly,
garnering just 0.25 percent of the vote.
The presidential race was not the only tight race. The U.S. Senate
contest between Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D) and former Gov. Tommy Thompson
(R) was the most expensive in state history. Thompson went
through a primary and cumulatively spent $9.8 million, Baldwin spent
$15.6 million, and there were $47.4 million in independent expenditures
during the two-year cycle. Additional resources poured into the
battle for control of the State Senate, which Republicans succeeded in
tipping from 17D, 15R and 1v to 18R, 15D.
Newspaper Endorsements (Sample)
OBAMA
|
ROMNEY
|
Chippewa Herald (Nov. 4, 2012) +
LaCrosse Tribune (Nov. 4, 2012) +
Wausau Daily Herald (Oct. 28, 2012) + |
Beloit Daily News (Nov. 3, 2012)
+
Green Bay Press-Gazette (Oct. 28, 2012) +
Janesville Gazette (Nov. 4, 2012)
*Wisconsin State
Journal (Nov. 4, 2012) 83,083 (92)
+ |
Chippewa
Herald and LaCrosse Tribune
same endorsement.
NO ENDORSEMENT
The Journal Sentinel [Milwaukee] (Oct. 26, 2012)
+
"...we have decided that
the Editorial Board should get out of the political endorsement
business."
Kenosha News (Oct. 20, 2012)
+
"The wounds from that [recall]
battle still run deep across the state, convincing us to take a
different approach on endorsements this fall. ...we’re not going to
make endorsements in the presidential election or the U.S. Senate race
this year."
Insurmountable Pluralities in
Milwaukee and Dane Counties
Wisconsin had the second
highest turnout as a percentage of voting eligilble population,
trailing only Minnesota. Paul Ryan's presence on the ticket
was not enough to tip the state into the red column. Although
Romney-Ryan won more counties (37 to 35), Obama-Biden racked up
insurmountable pluralities in the two largest counties, Milwaukee and
Dane. To carry Wisconsin, Republicans would have needed to do
better in
those two counties (as the Bush-Cheney ticket did in 2004 when they
came very close).
Statewide
2004
+Kerry/Edwards
(Dem.)
|
1,489,504 |
(49.70) |
Bush/Cheney
(Rep.) |
1,478,120 |
(49.32) |
Others and Scatter
|
29,383
|
(0.98)
|
Total
|
2,997,007 |
|
plurality: 11,384 votes
(0.38
percentage points)
counties: Bush 45, Kerry 27
|
2008
+Obama/Biden
(Dem.)
|
1,677,211 |
(56.22) |
McCain/Palin (Rep.) |
1,262,393 |
(42.31) |
Others and Scatter
|
40,023
|
(1.34)
|
Total
|
2,983,417 |
|
plurality: 414,818 votes (13.91
percentage points)
counties: Obama 59,
McCain 13
|
2012
+Obama/Biden
(Dem.)
|
1,620,985 |
(52.83) |
Romney/Ryan (Rep.) |
1,407,966 |
(45.89) |
Others and Scatter
|
39,483
|
(1.29)
|
Total
|
3,068,434
|
|
plurality: 213,019 votes (7.06 percentage points)
counties: Romney 37, Obama 35
|
Milwaukee
2004
+Kerry/Edwards
(Dem.)
|
297,653
|
(61.72)
|
Bush/Cheney
(Rep.) |
180,267
|
(37.38)
|
Others and Scatter
|
4,316
|
(0.89)
|
Total
|
482,236
|
|
plurality: 117,386 votes (24.34 percentage points)
482,236 is 16.09% of 2,997,007
total votes
|
2008
+Obama/Biden
(Dem.)
|
319,819
|
(67.30) |
McCain/Palin (Rep.) |
149,445 |
(31.45) |
Others and Scatter
|
5,928
|
(1.25)
|
Total
|
475,192
|
|
plurality: 170,374 votes (35.85 percentage points)
475,192 is 15.93% of 2,983,417
total votes
|
2012
+Obama/Biden
(Dem.)
|
332,438
|
(67.49) |
Romney/Ryan (Rep.) |
154,924
|
(31.45) |
Others and Scatter
|
5,214
|
(1.06)
|
Total
|
492,576
|
|
plurality: 177,514 votes (36.04 percentage points)
492,576 is 16.05%
of 3,068,434 total votes
|
Dane
2004
+Kerry/Edwards
(Dem.)
|
181,052
|
(66.02)
|
Bush/Cheney
(Rep.) |
90,369
|
(32.95)
|
Others and Scatter
|
2,828
|
(1.03)
|
Total
|
274,249
|
qqq
|
plurality: 90,683
votes
(33.07
percentage points)
274,249 is 9.15% of 2,997,007
total votes |
2008
+Obama/Biden
(Dem.)
|
205,984
|
(72.80)
|
McCain/Palin (Rep.) |
73,065
|
(25.82)
|
Others and Scatter
|
3,890
|
(1.37)
|
Total
|
282,939
|
|
plurality: 132,919 votes (46.98 percentage points)
282,939 is 9.48% of 2,983,417
total votes
|
2012
+Obama/Biden
(Dem.)
|
216,071
|
(71.03) |
Romney/Ryan (Rep.) |
83,644
|
(27.49) |
Others and Scatter
|
4,466
|
(1.47)
|
Total
|
304,181 |
|
plurality: 132,427 votes (43.54 percentage points)
304,181 is 9.91%
of 3,068,434 total votes
|
Waukesha
2004
+Kerry/Edwards
(Dem.)
|
73,626
|
(31.96)
|
Bush/Cheney
(Rep.) |
154,926
|
(67.25)
|
Others and Scatter
|
1,811
|
(0.79)
|
Total
|
230,363
|
|
plurality:
81,300 votes (35.29
percentage points)
230,363 is 7.68% of
2,997,007
|
2008
Obama/Biden
(Dem.)
|
85,339
|
(36.64)
|
+McCain/Palin (Rep.) |
145,152
|
(62.32)
|
Others and Scatter
|
2,406
|
(1.03)
|
Total
|
232,897
|
|
plurality: 59,813 votes (25.68
percentage points)
232,897 is 7.81% of 2983,41
total votes
|
2012
Obama/Biden
(Dem.)
|
78,779
|
(32.31) |
+Romney/Ryan (Rep.) |
162,798
|
(66.76) |
Others and Scatter
|
2,279
|
(0.93)
|
Total
|
243,856 |
|
plurality: 84,019 votes (34.45 percentage points)
243,856 is 7.95%
of 3,068,434 total votes
|
Recommended: Wisconsin Public Television/Wisconsin Public
Radio's Wisconsin Vote
site.